Chuck Kuhn's Asia in Photos: Comment: Impact of Eurozone crisis on travel

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Comment: Impact of Eurozone crisis on travel

Euromonitor International evaluated the potential impact of the Eurozone crisis on the region"s travel and tourism industry based on a review of previous economic downturns. Paz Casal, Travel and Tourism Analyst at Euromonitor International investigates further.

"To best illustrate the potential impact of the Eurozone crisis on the region"s travel and tourism industry, Euromonitor International modelled three different outcomes for 2012 - one best case scenario and two worst case scenarios, the latter two being a Greek exit and the complete break-up of the Economic Monetary Union.
Best case scenario
Even in the best case scenario, the prospects for Europe remain weak in 2012. The second election Greece came down in favour of Europe and the associated austerity measures, which puts an end to the uncertainty surrounding Greece's place in the Eurozone. Despite a bailout for Spanish banks, market concerns remain regarding the ability of Spain and also Italy to fund their sovereign debt. Based on the assumption that the Eurozone crisis is not exacerbated further, the EuroZone is expected to experience a 0.7% contraction in real GDP in 2012 due to recessions in its Mediterranean members, followed by a mild expansion of 0.8% in 2013.
Worst case scenario 1 - Greek exit
The second election in Greece marked a major event for the Eurozone project and the European Union as a whole. Increasingly seen as a referendum on Eurozone membership, the result has abated concerns that Greece will be forced out of the euro. The cost of a Greek exit from the EuroZone would be heavy, albeit not marking the outright end of the euro, with GDP expected to decline by 2.5% for the Eurozone as a whole.
Worst case scenario 2 - EuroZone break-up
The potential collapse of the Eurozone remains a possibility and it cannot be ruled out that several Member States would be forced to leave the euro, which in turn could cause a chain reaction, ending with a complete break-up. This would lead the region's economies to shrink by as much as 9.8% in the first year, followed by a further decline of 2.8% in 2013. A recession would be experienced across the entire Eurozone, dragging down the global economy into a potential global double dip.
Inbound tourism - best and worst case scenarios

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They say "

“I can’t say what made me fall in love with Vietnam - that a woman’s voice can drug you; that everything is so intense. The colors, the taste, even the rain. Nothing like the filthy rain in London. They say whatever you’re looking for, you will find here. They say you come to Vietnam and you understand a lot in a few minutes, but the rest has got to be lived. The smell: that’s the first thing that hits you, promising everything in exchange for your soul. And the heat. Your shirt is straightaway a rag. You can hardly remember your name, or what you came to escape from. But at night, there’s a breeze. The river is beautiful. You could be forgiven for thinking there was no war; that the gunshots were fireworks; that only pleasure matters. A pipe of opium, or the touch of a girl who might tell you she loves you. And then, something happens, as you knew it would. And nothing can ever be the same again.”
― Graham Greene, The Quiet American

Tips on Travel to Vietnam

It's always warm in Southeast Asia apart from high mountains, so leave the heavy clothing at home. Cotton and breathable fabrics are always better than synthetics -- although cotton does wrinkle a lot when traveling! December through April is roughly the dry season in that region, although it can still rain a little. December is a good time to go in terms of temperature -- cooler than in the humid summertime. Either way, wearing more clothing (shirt sleeves and long pants) is always more respectful towards the Asian culture, especially when visiting temples and rural areas.