PUNE: This year's monsoon forecast will have a special dimension as the India Meteorology Department (IMD) here is set to do forecasting for the entire south Asia region for the first time.
The IMD, in association with organisations like the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pashan, and Switzerland-based World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), will forecast the performance of the south-west monsoon for seven south Asian countries.
"The special initiative for regional forecast has been undertaken for the first time," said A K Srivastava, National Climate Centre, IMD. "This forecast will be known as consensus-based forecast and is expected to be released at the end of April," he added.
According to IMD officials, the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF), a special group set up for capacity building in monsoon forecasting in south Asian countries, will be instrumental in co-ordinating the forecast.
The first meeting of this initiative, called SASCOF-1, will be hosted by the IMD in Pune from April 13. Experts from the SASCOF member countries Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka will attend the meet besides several regional and global experts. The WMO is supporting this initiative through its Climate Information and Prediction Services.
"The WMO has agreed to assist in co-ordination of SASCOF sessions until a permanent arrangement is worked out. It has been agreed that the first session of the SASCOF will be held by India and subsequent sessions will be hosted by other participating countries by rotation," said Shrivastava, who is co-ordinating the initiative from Pune.
He said, "The SASCOF will initially have exclusive focus on the summer monsoon. The needs for covering other aspects of the sub-regional climate will be addressed in due course."
The forum includes appraisal of country perspectives, assessment of capacity building needs, global and regional indicators, consensus outlook generation and issue and user interaction. Experts from participating countries will receive guidance in using, interpreting and downscaling global seasonal prediction products, and in developing a consensus outlook.
According to weather experts, accurate prediction of south-west monsoon is very crucial for the region. The south-west monsoon (June September) rainfall accounts for 75-90 per cent of the annual rainfall in most of the countries in the region. The rainfall is important for crops that are dependent on monsoon rains. The summer monsoon rainfall is also important for hydroelectric power generation and meeting drinking water requirements.
"Monsoon prediction and outlook is a shared challenge for many South Asian nations due to the lack of expertise and infrastructure. The SASCOF will help deal with these issues," Shrivastava added.
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